Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Cuban regime falls in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES). The US president has deported far more Cuban nationals during his second term than the entirety of his first.
Down from 28% to 20% since 2026-04-14 (-8pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $443K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 20c YES with $443K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.