Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 55% YES on Polymarket with $93K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

55c

45c

Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO). The conflict entered its 31st day on Monday, with both sides stepping up military operations.

Currently at 55%

Traded on Polymarket — $93K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($93K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 55c YES.

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OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 45c

Smart money entered NO at 52c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 52c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$1.8K	-13%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 45c (-13%), $1.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · Aug 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 04BUYNO52+$2,130$2,130 Realized— Unrealized−$282 Total Profit−$282 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (724) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 52c. At current price 55c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 55c YES — $93K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 55c with $93K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 55c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	55c	$93K
Our Model	55c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 55% YES with $93K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.