Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?” at 11% YES with $188K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

What’s Happening

The political landscape surrounding Venezuela’s leadership has shifted dramatically following the August 29, 2026 announcement of a landmark oil agreement between the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the government of acting President Delcy Rodríguez. The deal, which grants the United States operational control over an estimated 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, has triggered widespread protests in Caracas and raised questions about the legitimacy of Rodríguez’s government, which assumed power after Nicolás Maduro’s imprisonment. Rodríguez has defended the pact as the "path of diplomacy," aiming to transform Venezuela into an "energy powerhouse," while critics, including energy experts cited by NPR, question whether the agreement undermines the country’s sovereignty and whether the acting president has the domestic mandate to make such a concession [NPR, Mon Aug 31].

The question of whether Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela becomes a reality by December 31, 2026 is now inextricably linked to the fallout from this oil deal. While Rodríguez has publicly embraced the agreement, her position is precarious: Maduro, from prison, has posted on social media claiming he is "standing firm," signaling a potential power struggle within Chavismo. Meanwhile, U.S. officials, including Vice President Vance and Treasury Secretary Bessent, are reportedly seeking to reassure allies about the deal’s implications, even as Venezuelan protesters denounce it as a sellout to American interests. The domestic backlash, combined with Washington’s explicit pressure on Rodríguez to deliver economic stability, creates a volatile environment where her political survival is far from assured [Stamford Advocate, Mon Aug 31].

Looking ahead, the structural factor that will likely determine whether Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela occurs before the end of 2026 is the performance of the Venezuelan economy under the new oil framework. Rodríguez has staked her legitimacy on the promise that the deal will bring tangible wealth to ordinary citizens, with her own social media posts vowing that "Chavismo will win the next presidential election in two years" if the benefits materialize. However, analysts note that the agreement’s legitimacy is contested, and any failure to deliver rapid economic improvement could embolden both internal rivals and external actors to push for her removal. The coming months will test whether Rodríguez can navigate the dual pressures of U.S. demands and domestic unrest, making her tenure a central geopolitical flashpoint heading into 2027 [EL PAÍS English, Mon Aug 31].

Traded on Polymarket — $188K Volume