Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 15%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (15% YES). Iran attack damages Kuwait power units amid regional tensions.

What’s Happening

The market on an iran coup attempt by december 31 sits at 15% YES against a backdrop of intensifying external conflict rather than a clear internal power grab. On July 18, 2026, the U.S. military struck facilities used by Iran's Revolutionary Guard for a sixth consecutive night, part of a campaign to restrict Guard movement around the Strait of Hormuz after last month's ceasefire collapsed. CENTCOM confirmed the escalation followed Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, and separate reporting indicated an Iranian strike damaged power generation units in Kuwait. The sustained bombing — described as the largest wave since the truce broke down — has strained critical Gulf infrastructure and kept Tehran's leadership focused outward. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 18]

The domestic dimension driving talk of an iran coup attempt by december 31 comes from within the hardliner camp. According to a CNN report cited by Hindustan Times on July 18, hardliners have advanced a theory that Iran's wartime leaders who negotiated and signed the agreement with the United States are effectively staging a "soft coup" against the Islamic Republic. Hardliners frame the diplomatic track as a betrayal of revolutionary principles; analysts caution the accusation reflects factional positioning and a contested war narrative rather than an organized military move against Supreme Leader authority. The dispute centers on who controls Iran's response as strikes continue. [Hindustan Times, Jul 18]

Resolution hinges on a structural distinction: rhetorical "coup" accusations versus an actual seizure of power. Iran has conducted at least seven series of drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain through July 14, and prospects for an IAEA visit to nuclear sites by year-end are seen as diminishing. External pressure historically consolidates Iran's leadership rather than fracturing it, and no faction has demonstrated the security-apparatus backing a coup requires. Whether internal grievance converts into a genuine iran coup attempt by december 31 will depend on Guard cohesion and elite fractures absent so far. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 15c YES.