Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?” at 11% YES with $105K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). On Tuesday, December 30, 2025, the uprising in Iran entered a critical new phase.

What’s Happening

The probability of an Iran coup attempt by December 31 stands at a low 8% YES, even as the Islamic Republic faces its most severe internal challenge in decades. On December 30, 2025, the historic Grand Bazaar of Tehran remained shuttered for a third consecutive day, with merchants aligning with university students in a nationwide strike that has evolved from economic protest into a direct challenge to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule. The uprising, triggered by the collapse of the rial and government inaction, has spread across multiple cities, drawing violent crackdowns from security forces and resulting in a dayslong internet blackout that has killed thousands and led to mass detentions over roughly two weeks [NCR-Iran, Dec 31].

The market’s low odds reflect a historical pattern where regime change via military or elite defection has rarely succeeded without foreign coordination, yet the current crisis has drawn unprecedented external attention. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened military action if the death toll continues to rise, while Khamenei has vowed the regime will “not bow” to pressure [CFR, Mar 02]. Analysts caution that past coup attempts, such as the 1953 overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddeq, required active foreign intelligence backing—Britain approached the U.S. in late 1952 to organize that operation—whereas today’s unrest is largely organic, with no clear military faction publicly signaling a break from the clerical establishment [National Security Archive, Aug 08].

For an Iran coup attempt by December 31 to materialize, the critical variable remains the loyalty of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular military, which have so far enforced the crackdown without visible fractures. Historical precedent from Turkey’s July 15, 2016 failed putsch shows that even well-coordinated military plots can collapse when mid-level officers hesitate and civilian leadership mobilizes counter-narratives—Fethullah Gülen’s network spent eight months preparing that attempt, yet it failed within hours [ANews, Jul 14]. The structural factor that will determine resolution is whether the bazaar strike’s economic leverage—shutting down Tehran’s commercial heart—can force a split within the security establishment before year’s end, a prospect that current intelligence assessments deem unlikely but not impossible given the regime’s shrinking fiscal capacity [NCR-Iran, Dec 31].

Traded on Polymarket — $105K Volume