Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?” at 21% YES with $218K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (21% YES).

What’s Happening

Iran said on November 2, 2026 it is considering a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicating Tehran could restore commercial transit within 48 hours if Washington accepts conditions including a new transit route agreed with Oman, removal of recent sanctions, and reduced U.S. troop levels in the region. The offer comes as a draft U.S. deal circulates and President Donald Trump signals progress in talks. Since the Middle East war began in late February, Iran has claimed control over Hormuz and targeted vessels crossing without authorization, prompting a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. [CNA, Nov 02]

Oman-Iran talks have already outlined a temporary navigation arrangement, though Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi conceded it cannot be implemented unless Washington and Tehran compromise, including by reversing wartime actions that halted maritime traffic. Oman's ruler Sultan Haitham bin Tariq discussed the war with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday, with both sides urging the U.S. and Iran to pursue a ceasefire and negotiations. The diplomatic push matters because any Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by November 30 would require parallel U.S. concessions that remain unresolved, leaving the market's 21% YES pricing sensitive to each round of talks. [Al Jazeera, Nov 01]

Hawks in Washington have demanded verifiable guarantees that Iran relinquish its claimed control over the strait before any sanctions relief, while analysts caution that the two-day reopening framework is a confidence-building measure rather than a durable settlement. The structural factor determining whether an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by November 30 materializes is whether the draft U.S. deal converts the temporary navigation arrangement into a binding transit regime acceptable to both capitals. Araghchi's remarks to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed Tehran's defensive stance even as negotiations proceed, underscoring the gap between a short-term reopening and a formal accord. [Daily Sabah, Nov 02]

Traded on Polymarket — $218K Volume