Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). About The Times of Israel.

What’s Happening

The US military reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 14, 2026, responding to Iran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz as the interim ceasefire deal unraveled and concerns grew about a return to all-out war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on July 11 that it had closed the strait, struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, and hit a second unspecified ship on July 12. In response, the United States struck dozens of Iranian military targets, conducting over 300 strikes inside Iran. The escalation directly complicates whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22, with the underlying US-Iran truce that anchored regional de-escalation now openly contested. [Times of Israel, Jul 14]

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on July 13 that the US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended, citing "relatively more intense and consistent exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf." Hardline voices in Tehran touted expanded capabilities, with one Iranian official claiming tripled drone capacity, while the IDF coordinated with US forces in preparation for possible further strikes. Analysts caution that Gulf skirmishes have not yet translated into renewed direct Israel-Iran exchanges, leaving open whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 despite the broader breakdown. Washington has sought an Iranian pledge to free up Hormuz, where more than 150 ships were reported stranded and only six vessels transited in one 24-hour window. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 13]

The structural factor is whether the naval conflict between Washington and Tehran drags Israel back into direct hostilities before the deadline, or stays confined to the strait. Separately, a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire faltered after an Israeli airstrike killed a man, his wife and their six-year-old daughter on July 15, adding to a toll of more than 1,100 Palestinians and straining regional diplomacy. Whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 hinges on this containment holding through the deadline. [Reuters, Jul 15]

Traded on Polymarket — $79K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($79K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 74c YES.