As of October 19, 2026, Polymarket prices “Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?” at 8% YES with $271K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: kim jong un out as supreme leader of north korea by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 8c. BUY NO at 8c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 93c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–96c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 92c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned entirely on NO at 90c, signaling conviction that Kim Jong Un remains in power through 2026. With no YES entries recorded, smart money shows no appetite for the regime-change thesis. This one-sided NO positioning suggests the market's dominant direction is firmly against a YES outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $3.4K | +2% |
With YES at 8c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions entered at 90c are profitable, reinforcing strong downside pressure on the YES price. The absence of profitable YES entries means there is no bid-side support from winners, keeping the market anchored near the low end. Price support for YES is effectively nonexistent, favoring further drift toward zero.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $271K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $271K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |