Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?” at 9% YES with $279K traded. No tracked smart-money wallet holds a position on this market yet.

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, center, speaks during a cabinet meeting at the presidential office in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Aug.

What’s Happening

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s political standing has deteriorated sharply entering the fall of 2026, with his approval rating falling to a new low of 29% in early September, according to a Gallup Korea poll cited by Yonhap. The decline follows a turbulent August in which the president proposed formal talks with Pyongyang to end the Korean War on Aug. 15, a move that drew mixed domestic reactions, and then faced a Cabinet reshuffle on Aug. 30 that elevated Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong-il to the top economic post and named a new defense minister. The reshuffle, aimed at reviving growth and accelerating investment, has been read by Seoul political watchers as an attempt to reset an agenda that has lost momentum, yet the low approval numbers have fueled speculation about whether Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 is a plausible scenario should opposition parties unify behind an impeachment push or early election drive [UPI, Sep 01].

The political calculus around Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 hinges on procedural thresholds in the National Assembly, where the opposition Democratic Party holds 171 of 300 seats — short of the 200 votes needed to pass an impeachment motion. However, the president’s own party has shown signs of internal fracture, with at least 12 lawmakers publicly questioning his leadership after the approval slump, according to the Korea Herald. A key trigger point is the Oct. 2026 parliamentary audit session, where opposition committees are expected to subpoena presidential aides over the stalled inter-Korean dialogue and the controversial defense minister nomination, which faced a 48-day confirmation delay in the National Assembly. Any formal impeachment vote would require a constitutional court ruling within 180 days, a timeline that would extend into mid-2027, making the 2026 window for a presidential change legally narrow but politically volatile [Bloomberg, Aug 30].

Looking ahead, the most consequential test for Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 will be the Nov. 2026 by-elections for three National Assembly seats, widely viewed as a midterm referendum on his administration. The president’s diplomatic pivot — skipping Washington for Silicon Valley and Brasília in late July to focus on industrial networks and the compute economy — has yet to translate into tangible economic gains, with GDP growth projected at just 1.8% for the year, per the Bank of Korea. Meanwhile, the U.S. alliance remains a flashpoint; on Aug. 18, Lee stressed the importance of a firm military alliance with Washington amid confusion over former President Trump’s statements on troop reductions, a stance that has alienated some progressive voters. If the by-elections deliver a decisive opposition win, the probability of a leadership change could rise, but as of now, the 91% NO probability reflects a political system where constitutional hurdles and a fragmented opposition make an early exit unlikely [NPR, Aug 18].

Traded on Polymarket — $279K Volume