As of September 29, 2026, Polymarket prices “Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?” at 6% YES with $645K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: lindsay clancy convicted of murder by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 94c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 95c. 6-point gap supports YES.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, entering between 72c and 92c, which signals conviction that a murder conviction will not materialize by the December 31, 2026 deadline. Their willingness to pay up to 92c for NO indicates they see the probability of conviction as materially below the current 95c NO-implied level, likely pricing in legal delays, appeals, or competency proceedings. With no tracked YES entries, smart money is unambiguously aligned against a conviction outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $18.7K | +3% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $4.2K | +16% |
Every tracked position is profitable, with 100% of NO holders in the green and 0% of YES holders above water at a 5c YES price. The NO side's gains from 72c-92c entries imply the market has steadily repriced toward acquittal or case resolution, leaving YES buyers deeply underwater. This one-sided profitability reinforces downward pressure on YES, as there is little incentive for NO holders to exit and every incentive for trapped YES holders to sell into any bounce.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $645K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $645K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |