Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Last year, the top spot of course went to none other than President Donald Trump, closely followed by Elon Musk.
The market for whether Donald Trump will be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year currently sits at an **11% YES** probability, a sharp decline from the **89% NO** consensus that has solidified following the release of Google’s Year in Search 2025 data. That report, published on **December 4, 2025**, confirmed that conservative activist Charlie Kirk—not Trump—topped the trending searches list, with the assassination of Kirk and the **43-day government shutdown** dominating user queries. The result upended expectations for the "donald trump #1 searched person on google in the us this year" market, which had previously favored the president after he won the top spot for three consecutive years, including **2024** when his election victory drove record search volume. [CBS News, Dec 05]
The shift in probability is also tied to a federal criminal case that has reshaped how traders approach this specific market. On **May 28, 2026**, the FBI unsealed a complaint against a Google engineer, **Spagnuolo**, who allegedly used internal search data to place **$509,149** on the "No" side of the "donald trump #1 searched person on google in the us this year" market, alongside similar bets against Pope Leo XIV and Bianca Censori. The engineer’s total winnings reached **$1.2 million**, and the case has prompted Polymarket to tighten verification protocols for users with access to non-public data. This procedural development—akin to a committee vote in legislative terms—has made traders wary of any position that relies on insider knowledge, further depressing the YES odds for Trump’s 2026 search dominance. [Ars Technica, May 28]
Looking ahead, the next procedural milestone for this market is the release of Google’s **2026 Year in Search** report, typically published in early December. Current odds suggest that Trump’s search volume will be diluted by ongoing political events—including the **2026 midterm election cycle** and potential legislative battles over the "big, beautiful bill"—which could drive searches for challengers and new figures. Kalshi’s board currently lists Trump at a value price, noting he has topped the chart for three straight years, but the FBI investigation has introduced a compliance risk that many traders are pricing in. With **89% NO** probability, the market reflects a consensus that the president’s search dominance has peaked, though a major legislative vote or an unexpected executive action before **December 2026** could still reverse the trajectory. [Covers, Jul 31]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 89c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 89c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $3.5K | +1% |
NO wallets entered at 89c. At current price 11c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 11c with $54K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11c | $54K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |