Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). RAMALLAH, December 31, 2025 (WAFA) — President Mahmoud Abbas said that the outbreak of the contemporary Palestinian revolution marked a.

What’s Happening

The question of **Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31** remains a low-probability scenario, with the incumbent marking the 61st anniversary of the Palestinian revolution on **December 31, 2025**, by reaffirming a path toward "freedom and independence." Abbas, who has led the Palestinian Authority since **2005**, delivered a statement in Ramallah that made no mention of succession or early elections, effectively signaling his intent to remain in office through the end of the current term. The **14% YES** probability reflects the absence of any formal legislative motion, internal Fatah vote, or external pressure campaign that would force a leadership change before the year's close. [WAFA, Dec 31]

The political context is complicated by regional security developments, including Israeli military claims of **20,900 attacks** across the Middle East in **2025**, with operations in the West Bank city of Tulkarem continuing through the final day of the year. These events have shifted focus toward security coordination rather than internal Palestinian elections, which have not been held since **2006**. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority has used the period to reaffirm diplomatic stances, including a **January 14, 2026** statement reiterating support for China's "One China" policy amid Taiwan tensions — a move that underscores Abbas's continued engagement in foreign policy rather than preparing a transition. No committee vote, party primary, or constitutional procedure has been scheduled to replace him, and Fatah's internal mechanisms remain dormant on the succession question. [China Daily HK, Dec 31]

Looking ahead, the key procedural milestone would be any announcement from the Palestinian Central Council or Fatah's Revolutionary Council regarding presidential elections, but no such session has been convened for the remainder of **2025**. Historical precedent shows that mass demonstrations, such as the **December 2022** Fatah anniversary rally in Gaza that drew huge crowds, have not translated into leadership votes. The **86% NO** probability aligns with the absence of any credible challenger, legal mechanism, or external ultimatum — including from Israeli officials who have repeatedly called for Palestinian relocation but not for Abbas's removal. The next meaningful date is the **January 2026** session of the Palestinian National Council, where any leadership change would first need to be proposed as a formal agenda item, a step that has not occurred. [VOA, Dec 31]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 14c YES.