Megaquake by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Megaquake by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Alaska’s 2025 mega tsunami highlights risk to cruise lines as glaciers retreat.

What’s Happening

A prediction market tracking the likelihood of a "megaquake" occurring by June 30 currently shows a 16% probability, with the vast majority of participants betting against such an event. This comes amid heightened public awareness of seismic and geological risks following a series of recent disasters. In August 2025, a massive rockslide in Alaska’s Tracy Arm Fjord—triggered by glacial retreat—generated a tsunami 481 meters tall, the second-tallest ever recorded, according to a study highlighted by The Guardian. That event, which struck a fjord visited by cruise ships, has been cited by scientists as a stark warning of how climate change is destabilizing coastal rock formations and increasing the potential for catastrophic landslides and subsequent tsunamis. [Guardian, May 06]

The term "megaquake" typically refers to an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater, capable of causing widespread devastation. While the Alaska event was a tsunami rather than a quake, it has refocused attention on the vulnerability of infrastructure in seismically active regions. A previously unreported engineering analysis commissioned by the Port of San Francisco warns that the city’s historic Ferry Building could partially collapse during an extreme earthquake, as foundation supports are failing beneath sections of the structure, its south promenade, and back waterfront plaza. The report outlines worst-case scenarios for the building, which sits near the San Andreas Fault. Separately, a 5.7-magnitude earthquake struck the Mexican state of Oaxaca on May 4, 2026, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, though no damages or injuries were immediately reported. [San Francisco Chronicle, May 02] [ABC7 Los Angeles, May 04]

Looking ahead, the convergence of glacial melt, unstable rock faces, and known fault lines continues to drive monitoring efforts by seismologists and geologists. The Alaska mega tsunami demonstrated that a single rockslide can generate a wave taller than the Burj Khalifa, underscoring the unpredictable nature of these events. The 16% probability assigned to a megaquake by the end of June reflects a market assessment that such an event remains unlikely in the near term, though not impossible. Researchers emphasize that as glaciers retreat further, the risk of similar landslides in fjords and coastal areas will persist, particularly in regions like Alaska, British Columbia, and Chile. The outcome of this prediction will be determined by seismic activity and geological stability over the next several weeks. [Daily Galaxy, May 07]

Traded on Polymarket — $79K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($79K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.