As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?” at 13% YES with $645K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 13c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 87c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 87c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The single tracked wallet holds NO at 75c, suggesting a high-conviction bet against Díaz-Canel's departure by year-end. This entry near the upper bound signals smart money sees minimal probability of a transition, reinforcing the dominant NO side and discouraging YES accumulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.3K | +7% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 75c, while no YES positions are profitable, indicating strong bearish sentiment on leadership change. The 13c YES price faces significant resistance from profitable NO holders who can absorb selling pressure, keeping the market skewed toward the status quo.
Polymarket prices YES at 13c with $645K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13c | $645K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |