As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?” at 8% YES with $782K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 8c. BUY NO at 8c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 93c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–96c vs 92c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 92c. 6-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 84c, positioning against Díaz-Canel's exit and signaling confidence that the leader remains in place through December 31. With no YES entries recorded, there is no visible smart-money counterweight, so the lone tracked position points toward continued NO dominance and limited upside for YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.1K | +7% |
With YES at 8c, YES holders are 0% in profit while all NO positions are profitable, reflecting strong downside pressure on the YES contract. The 84c NO entry implies a roughly 16% implied probability at entry versus the current 8c, meaning NO holders have captured substantial gains and the market has repriced sharply toward NO. This profit skew reinforces the 8c floor as a low-conviction YES bid with little support.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $782K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $782K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |