Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO). The anxiety and uncertainty surrounding Cuba’s future have intensified further since U.S.

What’s Happening

A prediction market tracking the political future of Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel now places a 56% probability on his departure from power by December 31, reflecting mounting pressure on Havana after the collapse of its Venezuelan energy lifeline. The ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro severed the subsidized oil shipments that had propped up Cuba’s economy for decades, triggering a nationwide crisis. U.S. President Donald Trump reinforced this leverage by signing an executive order on Feb. 29 threatening punitive tariffs on any nation supplying fuel to the island, compounding existing shortages that have halted trash collection, crippled public transportation, and left citizens without adequate food. The question of whether Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31 becomes reality is now a central focus for analysts tracking the regime’s stability. [Time, Apr 23]

The economic strangulation has intensified internal pressures on Díaz-Canel’s government, with prolonged blackouts and diminished commercial activity eroding public confidence. Cuban Ambassador to the U.N. Ernesto Soberón Guzmán stated on April 23 that Havana is “preparing for all scenarios” amid U.S. threats, while denying that releasing political prisoners would be part of any negotiations. The uncertainty has also revived long-dormant property claims among Cuban exiles, with groups like the National Association of Cuban Landowners in Exile pressing for restitution of assets seized decades ago. These developments underscore the fragile state of the regime as the deadline for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31 approaches, with the U.S. State Department declaring “This is OUR Hemisphere” and signaling further intervention. [AP News, Apr 23]

Negotiations between Washington and Havana remain tense, with the clock ticking on demands for political prisoner releases and broader democratic reforms. CBS News reported on April 25 that talks are ongoing but face significant hurdles, as Cuba’s leadership resists what it calls American “ultimatums.” The outcome of these discussions will likely determine whether Díaz-Canel can survive the current crisis or whether internal dissent or external pressure forces a leadership change. For now, the 56% probability assigned to his departure by year’s end reflects a market consensus that the combination of economic collapse, U.S. coercion, and domestic unrest makes a transition increasingly plausible. The question of Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31 hinges on whether the regime can secure alternative energy sources or negotiate a path to stability before the deadline. [CBS News, Apr 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $169K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 56c YES with $169K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.