As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?” at 15% YES with $649K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 15c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 70c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 45% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (70–98c vs 85c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 85c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 75c, positioning against Díaz-Canel's exit and signaling confidence that he remains in power through December 31. With no YES entries recorded, there is no countervailing smart-money conviction on the resolution side. This one-sided positioning suggests informed traders see the probability of leadership change as materially below the current 15c YES price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.2K | +5% |
With YES at 15c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries are profitable, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend the 85c level. The absence of profitable YES traders removes a natural source of buying pressure, making a sustained YES rally unlikely without fresh catalysts. This P&L asymmetry reinforces the bearish bias toward the status quo outcome.
Polymarket prices YES at 15c with $649K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15c | $649K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |