As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?” at 57% YES with $81K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 57% probability to: perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 16c vs market 57c. BUY NO at 57c — models see 41c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (75–98c vs 43c). Grok Contrarian leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 84c — market prices it at 43c. 41-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 34c, signaling conviction that Perim Island will remain under Houthi control through December 31. This entry well below the current 57c YES price implies the wallet sees the market as overpricing a Houthi exit, and the 100% NO profitability suggests smart money is aligned against the YES narrative. With only one tracked wallet, the signal is directional but thin, so it should be weighted as a lean rather than a strong conviction indicator.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $2.4K | +27% |
With YES at 57c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO holders are in profit, creating asymmetric pressure against the YES side. The absence of profitable YES positions means there is no natural bid support from winners, making the 57c level vulnerable to further decay. NO holders at 34c have locked in gains and have little incentive to sell, but their profit cushion could encourage additional NO buying that pushes YES lower.
Polymarket prices YES at 57c with $81K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 16c. Significant 41-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57c | $81K |
| Our Model | 16c | — |