Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

As of November 5, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?” at 32% YES with $64K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

The Fed has not raised rates since 2023 and inflation trends will determine any 2027 move. Current odds of 32% suggest a hike is unlikely but not ruled out.

What’s Happening

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September 2026 to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since March 2024, and held at the October meeting with two FOMC members dissenting in favor of a further hike. The September dot plot showed six participants projecting 25 basis points of cumulative hikes by year-end 2027, eight forecasting 50 basis points, and three projecting 25 basis points of cuts. Against that backdrop, the probability of the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting sits at 32% YES, as traders weigh whether the next move comes in the first half of 2027. [Bondsavvy, Sep 17]

Macquarie economist David Doyle said in March 2026 that the next policy move would be a hike, with the most likely timing in 1H27, a view echoed by EY-Parthenon's chief economist. Speculators at the time priced only a 12.4% chance of a 25 bps increase to 3.75%–4.00%, a reading that has since been overtaken by the September hike. The September CPI report, which showed renewed gains in oil, gasoline and diesel prices, prompted Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic to warn that higher energy costs could spill over into inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for further tightening. [Fortune, Mar 20]

The trajectory matters for global markets: BMI sees Brent crude trading above USD 100 a barrel into 2027, up from the USD 75 assumed in Egypt's budget, a dynamic that complicates disinflation forecasts. The Fed's median projection from September 2026 puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% through 2027, implying one more hike before a prolonged pause. Whether the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting will hinge on whether energy-driven inflation persists into the spring, with the FOMC's March statement and updated dot plot the next scheduled catalysts. [CBS News, Sep 11]

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