Crypto
Resolves: Jan 2027 59 days left Volume: $72K

Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

NO
94c
YES
6c

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Record crypto liquidation in 2026?” at 6% YES with $72K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Crypto markets recorded $12.5 billion in liquidations in October 2026, with long positions totaling $9.213 billion, about 74% of the monthly figure.

Down from 8% to 6% since 2026-08-04 (-2pp)

What’s Happening

Crypto derivatives markets recorded $12.5 billion in liquidations during October 2026, with long positions accounting for $9.213 billion, or roughly 74% of the monthly total, according to TokenPost. Short liquidations reached $3.29 billion. The month's largest single episode came on Oct 30, when $1.49 billion was wiped out in 24 hours, led by Bitcoin longs, as BTC fell 4.67% to $77,111 while Binance probed a suspected hack. The data places October among the heaviest liquidation months of the year but below the threshold implied by a record crypto liquidation in 2026. [TokenPost, Nov 01]

The October figures follow an unusually volatile August, when more than $3 billion in leveraged short positions were liquidated across crypto derivatives on Aug 19–20 — the eighth-largest liquidation event on record and the largest concentrated short squeeze since November 2021. Bitcoin climbed from an intraday low near $64,100 to above $72,000, while Ethereum surged roughly 18% in 24 hours, its strongest single-day move since March 2024. On-chain data showed short-term holders sent a record 43,300 BTC in profit to exchanges during the move, their largest profit-taking of 2026. [TradingView, Aug 20]

Macro event risk has compounded leverage stress. Bitcoin's 2026 track record around FOMC decisions shows liquidations of roughly $300 million–$500 million per rate announcement, with the January decision triggering nearly $1 billion in derivatives wipeouts, mostly longs. Three of five rate-decision days produced consistent selling pressure. With the September FOMC approaching, derivatives positioning remains the key variable: a record crypto liquidation in 2026 would require a single event surpassing prior peaks, and current data shows October's $12.5 billion monthly total was driven by long-side deleveraging rather than a systemic flush. [AMBCrypto, Aug 23]

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No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

As of November 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $72K in total volume.

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