Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 48% YES on Polymarket with $204K in total trading volume.

52c

YES

48c

Prediction markets put the probability at 48%: Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (48% YES, 52% NO).

Down from 60% to 48% since 2026-07-15 (-12pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $204K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 48c YES with $204K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets on every alpha market. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

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These Geopolitics markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis:

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 48% YES with $204K in total volume.

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.