As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?” at 22% YES with $51K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
A March 31, 2027 ceasefire is unlikely given ongoing hostilities and stalled negotiations, with current odds at 22% YES.
A $10,000 wager against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027 was placed on October 29, 2026, according to Quiver Quantitative, as diplomatic momentum remained fragile despite a limited truce in the south. The bet against the russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31, 2027 contract came as residents of Kherson walked through the strike-ravaged city under a limited ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow observed on October 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if the two countries reach a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, officially announced by both governments or confirmed by credible reporting, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET. [Quiver Quantitative, Oct 29]
The wager landed against a backdrop of stalled maximalist positions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated in July 2026 President Vladimir Putin's June 2024 demands, including Ukraine's complete withdrawal from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts and abandonment of NATO accession aspirations before any ceasefire and peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War assessed. Earlier, in May 2026, President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire and a swap of 1,000 prisoners from each side, a limited arrangement that fell well short of the comprehensive agreement the russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31, 2027 contract requires. [ISW, Jul 15]
Trading data showed $3.31 million in volume, $251,150 in liquidity and $481,910 in open interest, with the March 31, 2027 contract at 22.5% versus 53% for December 31, 2027 and 10.5% for December 31, 2026, CryptoSlate reported. The gap between the March and December 2027 contracts indicates traders assign little weight to a near-term deal. The structural factor determining resolution is whether Moscow abandons its territorial preconditions or Kyiv accepts them; absent that, the russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31, 2027 contract faces low odds. [CryptoSlate, Oct 29]
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