Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?” at 16% YES with $161K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Insurrection Act invoked by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Protests erupted across the city and on Jan.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to invoke the Insurrection Act have created a volatile legal and political landscape heading into the final weeks of the year. On December 31, 2025, Trump announced the withdrawal of National Guard troops from Chicago, Portland, and Los Angeles, a move that followed a Supreme Court ruling that halted his attempt to deploy active-duty forces to Chicago. However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurring opinion in Trump v. Illinois explicitly noted that the ruling did not address presidential authority under the Insurrection Act, leaving the door open for a potential invocation of the 1807 statute to bypass judicial restrictions on troop deployments. The last time the Insurrection Act was invoked was in 1992 during the Los Angeles riots following the Rodney King verdict. [SCOTUSblog, Jan 20]

The market tracking whether the Insurrection Act is invoked by December 31 currently sits at 16% YES, reflecting significant uncertainty despite the president’s public statements. On January 15, 2026, Trump threatened to invoke the act amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis, marking the latest in a series of confrontations with state and local officials. The ACLU has noted that federalized National Guard troops remain deployed in Washington, D.C., where courts have upheld their presence, but the administration’s attempts to deploy forces to other cities have been repeatedly blocked. Legal experts point out that the Insurrection Act grants the president extraordinary powers to deploy the military for law enforcement functions, including making arrests and conducting searches, which would represent a significant escalation beyond the National Guard deployments that have already drawn lawsuits from Illinois, California, and Oregon. [HR Dive, Jan 20]

The practical implications of an Insurrection Act invocation would extend far beyond the immediate protest zones, affecting federal immigration enforcement and workplace dynamics across the country. CNN reports that Trump has floated the Insurrection Act since his first term, but the current Minneapolis situation presents a particularly high-risk scenario given the legal precedents established in the Chicago case. The Supreme Court’s recognition that troop deployment for federal law enforcement is “exceptional” creates a high legal bar, yet Kavanaugh’s footnote suggests the justices may not have foreclosed the option entirely. As of January 20, 2026, the probability of invocation by year-end remains low but not negligible, with the key question being whether Trump will test the limits of the act in Minneapolis or other cities before the December 31 deadline. The withdrawal of National Guard troops from major cities on Dec. 31 has not resolved the underlying constitutional dispute over presidential military authority. [CNN, Jan 15]

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