Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Insurrection Act invoked by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). Trump to Give Coal Industry More Handouts While Americans Pay.

What’s Happening

The probability that the Insurrection Act will be invoked by December 31 currently stands at 24%, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment following a series of executive actions by President Donald Trump. On April 21, 2026, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act—a wartime authority—to mandate increased domestic fossil fuel production, citing "defense readiness" and a national energy emergency declared via executive order on January 20, 2025. The memos, released on April 20, explicitly state that U.S. oil, coal, and natural gas output must expand "to avert an industrial resource or critical technology item shortfall." While the Defense Production Act is a separate legal tool from the Insurrection Act, the administration's willingness to deploy emergency powers has fueled speculation that the Insurrection Act invoked by December 31 could be used to quell potential civil unrest or enforce federal energy mandates. [Common Dreams, Apr 21] [The Guardian, Apr 20]

The context for the Insurrection Act invoked by December 31 is further complicated by rising domestic tensions and international crises. On April 26, 2026, a 31-year-old California man named Cole Allen was arrested for a shooting at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, with reports linking him to a political group called The Wide Awakes—a name revived from a Civil War-era movement. Allen had reportedly attended a "No Kings" protest in California, signaling growing anti-administration sentiment. Simultaneously, Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 21, escalating a conflict that Trump has used to justify energy emergency measures. Pope Leo, during a visit to Equatorial Guinea on April 21, warned that humanity's future is "tragically compromised" and that emergency powers "must never be invoked to justify choices and actions of death," a direct critique of the administration's use of wartime authorities. [Newsweek, Apr 26] [Yahoo, Apr 21]

What comes next hinges on whether the administration will escalate from economic emergency powers to military domestic authority. The Insurrection Act, which allows the president to deploy the military for law enforcement within the U.S., has not been invoked since the 1992 Los Angeles riots. Analysts note that the Trump administration's pattern—using the Defense Production Act on April 21 to funnel taxpayer funds to coal and oil industries, despite coal plants being "more expensive than renewable energy to operate" per CleanTechnica—suggests a willingness to bypass normal legislative processes. The 76% probability against the Insurrection Act invoked by December 31 indicates that most market participants view the current legal and political barriers as high, but the combination of energy mandates, foreign conflict, and domestic unrest keeps the possibility alive. [CleanTechnica, Apr 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $132K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $132K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.