Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Insurrection Act invoked by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

What’s Happening

The probability that the Insurrection Act will be invoked by December 31 stands at 22% as of early May 2026, amid a volatile geopolitical landscape shaped by the aftermath of U.S. military operations in Iran. On May 1, 2026, a senior Trump administration official declared that hostilities with Iran had “terminated” for War Powers Resolution purposes, marking the 60-day deadline since President Trump notified Congress of operations beginning on February 28. However, this declaration has been met with skepticism from lawmakers on both sides, who note that the ceasefire with Iran is fragile and that the president’s letter to Congress on May 2 argued the ceasefire stopped the 60-day clock, a move critics call unconstitutional. The ongoing tension, combined with Trump’s threats to strike Iran again and his imposition of new sanctions on Cuba on May 1, has kept the possibility of domestic unrest and a subsequent invocation of the Insurrection Act alive in policy circles. [The Hill, May 02]

The relevance of the Insurrection Act invoked by December 31 scenario is heightened by the administration’s aggressive posture toward both foreign and domestic threats. On May 3, President Trump signed a bill ending a partial government shutdown while simultaneously stating there is a “possibility” the U.S. could strike Iran again, signaling that the ceasefire may not hold. Concurrently, reports emerged on May 1 that Israel deployed a laser defense system in the UAE to intercept Iranian missiles and drones, underscoring the regional instability that could spill over into U.S. domestic security concerns. The White House’s imposition of sanctions on Cuba on the same day, citing threats to national security, further illustrates a pattern of invoking emergency powers that could logically extend to domestic troop deployments under the Insurrection Act if civil disorder escalates. [NBC News, May 03]

Looking ahead, the key catalyst for the Insurrection Act invoked by December 31 outcome will be whether the Iran ceasefire collapses or domestic protests intensify. The May 1 incident where a man climbed a D.C. bridge to protest the Iran war, and the armed individual who attempted to storm the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, highlight a volatile domestic mood that could prompt the president to use the Insurrection Act to deploy federal troops. Legal experts note that the War Powers Act dispute—where the administration claims the ceasefire reset the 60-day clock—could face Supreme Court scrutiny, potentially creating a constitutional crisis that further destabilizes the situation. With the government shutdown resolved only temporarily and sanctions expanding, the probability of the Insurrection Act being invoked remains a live question for the remainder of 2026. [Times of Israel, May 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $137K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 18c YES with $137K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.