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Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $359K

SBF released from custody in 2026?

NO
92c
YES
8c

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: SBF released from custody in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Up from 6% to 8% since 2026-04-14 (+2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $359K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $359K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 92c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 8c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

+3% TARGET YIELD
55c
95c
100c
92c
89c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO73c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO95c
88%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO92c
75%
AI Gemini FlashNO85c
70%
AI Kimi MacroNO92c
90%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–98c vs 92c). Kimi Macro leads with 90% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 92c. 3-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money entered NO at 91c — a near-certainty conviction trade that SBF remains in custody through 2026, consistent with his 25-year sentence and active appeals timeline. The absence of any tracked YES entries reinforces a one-sided book: alpha capital treats release as a tail event, not a live probability.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xdcc9..34MMNO$1.1K+1%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

Single tracked wallet sits on a NO entry at 91c against a current YES price of 8c, putting the position deeply in profit with ~83c per share unrealized gain. With 100% of NO exposure profitable and zero YES participation tracked, there is no smart-money pressure supporting the YES side at these levels.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 8c YES — $359K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $359K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket8c$359K
Our Model11c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for SBF released from custody in 2026?
As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $359K in total volume.

Where can I bet on SBF released from custody in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about SBF released from custody in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for SBF released from custody in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 11c YES. 6 models agree on direction.