Politics

Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $2.7M

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Starmer out by December 31, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 72% YES on Polymarket with $2.7M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Starmer out by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Starmer out by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 25c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

72c

28c

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Starmer out by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES).

Currently at 72%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 72c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 4/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 29c

4/5 models agree on NO, fair value 25c vs market 72c. BUY NO at 72c — models see 47c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 5 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	58c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	70c	75%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	62c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	70c	60%

4 of 5 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–98c vs 28c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 75c — market prices it at 28c. 47-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: Compound Signal dissents at 58c — Signal score 2 (MODERATE), 55% backtest accuracy on NO side. Blended fair value: 58% YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 17c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$3.7K	+53%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 29c (+53%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 5 events · Feb 05 → May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 05BUYNO35+$116$116 Feb 09BUYNO24+$72$150 May 12BUYNO16+$2,920$3,022 May 12SELLNO19−$212$3,366 May 13SELLNO33−$1,451$4,343 Realized+$746 Unrealized+$1,546 Total Profit+$2,292 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (956) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 80 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 17c. At current price 72c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 72c YES — $2.7M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 72c with $2.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 25c. Significant 47-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	72c	$2.7M
Our Model	25c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 72% YES with $2.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 25c YES. 4 models agree on direction.