How did 'Starmer out by May 15, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 16, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (7 of 8 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.7M

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 16

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 7 of 8 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Gemini Flash	YES	60c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	93%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $15K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 69c–96c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x94eb..e6	MM	NO	$4.7K	-1%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-1%), $4.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO96+$4,775$4,775 Realized— Unrealized−$62 Total Profit−$62 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1804) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	MM	NO	$3.7K	+3%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+3%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 10 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 10BUYNO95+$12$12 May 11BUYNO73+$65$74 May 12BUYNO92+$3,519$3,612 Realized— Unrealized+$94 Total Profit+$94 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1828) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$2.1K	+31%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+31%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO69+$1,791$1,791 May 13SELLNO96−$322$2,157 Realized+$89 Unrealized+$570 Total Profit+$659 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1084) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xdd8e..23	MM	NO	$1.6K	+14%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (+14%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 11 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYNO73+$2,570$2,570 May 12SELLNO72−$1,327$1,225 Realized−$9 Unrealized+$363 Total Profit+$354 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (170) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x47ab..df	MM	NO	$1.4K	+31%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+31%), $1.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 23 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 23BUYNO78+$780$780 May 07SELLNO88−$18$858 May 12BUYNO66+$330$975 Realized+$2 Unrealized+$300 Total Profit+$302 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1164) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.1K	-76%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (-76%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 11 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYYES28+$184$184 May 12BUYYES23+$4,398$4,550 Realized— Unrealized−$3,443 Total Profit−$3,443 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

92% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,455 on $14.7K capital deployed (avg +9.9%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

92% in profit

YES positions

8% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$5.7M	0c
AI Consensus	16c	—	✓ matched

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