Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Starmer out by May 19, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). UK Bond Yields Rise With Starmer’s Future as Prime Minister in Doubt - The New York Times.
Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $176K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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