AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 71c |
42%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 40c |
20%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 56c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 52c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 65c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 57c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.0K | +21% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,009 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36c | $2.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 57c | — | × missed |