Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 83%: Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (83% YES). President Tamás Sulyok has vowed not to leave office.

What’s Happening

Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar on Saturday, July 4 filed a 12-point constitutional amendment package aimed at ousting President Tamás Sulyok, an ally of former premier Viktor Orbán. The proposal's headline provision calls for the "termination of the current president's term of office," alongside measures including a three-term limit for members of the national assembly and a rollback of the previous administration's institutional influence. The legislation reframes the question of whether Tamas Sulyok out as president of Hungary by July 31 from a political ambition into a concrete parliamentary procedure, as Magyar leverages his governing majority to accelerate the constitutional route. [Politico, Jul 05]

Sulyok, whose term is formally scheduled to run until 2029, has vowed not to leave office, setting up a direct constitutional confrontation over the presidency's independence. A constitutional amendment in Hungary requires a two-thirds supermajority vote in the 199-seat National Assembly, making the parliamentary arithmetic the decisive variable in whether the removal succeeds on the compressed timeline. The broader push coincides with Magyar's move to investigate MCC Brussels, the Orbán-aligned thinktank that received substantial Budapest funding, signaling a coordinated effort to dismantle the outgoing establishment's power base across multiple institutions simultaneously. [Guardian, Jul 05]

The immediate procedural question is whether the amendment can clear committee review and a floor vote before the July 31 deadline, a window that leaves little room for the legally mandated debate periods. Whether Tamas Sulyok out as president of Hungary by July 31 resolves affirmatively hinges on how quickly the assembly schedules the reading and whether any coalition defections erode the two-thirds threshold. Sulyok retains legal avenues to challenge his removal, and analysts note the constitution's own protections for the presidential term could trigger judicial review. Markets are also tracking parallel Hungarian developments, including Mercedes-Benz's decision to build a "baby" G-Class in the country, underscoring the economic stakes behind the political transition. [Politico, Jul 05]

Traded on Polymarket — $69K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($69K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 83c YES.