As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?” at 32% YES with $51K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Barclays has named a merger window that falls inside this contract's deadline, yet the 32% YES odds sit 20 points below Kalshi's pricing.
The probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027, stood at 32% YES against 68% NO, according to the latest market snapshot. The contract has drawn $1.68 million in volume, with $71.2K in liquidity and $172.65K in open interest as of the most recent sync. The February 28, 2027 rung has traded in a wide band over recent months, from as low as 18% in late July to 36% in mid-October, reflecting shifting expectations around the timing of any formal announcement. [CryptoSlate, Nov 5]
The timing ladder shows the February 28, 2027 contract priced well below longer-dated rungs: the June 30, 2027 deadline trades at 56.5% and the December 31, 2027 deadline at 70.5%, while the January 31, 2027 rung sits at 18%. Earlier contracts with June 30 and September 30, 2026 deadlines both resolved No, confirming that no announcement materialized in those windows. The structure implies traders see the probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027 as materially lower than a deal landing later in the year, with the annual meeting window cited as a potential catalyst. [24/7 Wall St., Oct 5]
Resolution criteria require a definitive, binding merger agreement officially announced before the deadline, with direction immaterial — a Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger or a stock-for-stock combination all settle the same way. Barclays has named a window that falls inside the February 28, 2027 deadline, and because Elon Musk runs both companies, both sides of any talks answer to the same chief executive. The principal risk cited is that Musk keeps teasing without committing; the contract resolves on an announcement, not a closed deal. The next catalysts to watch are the annual meeting calendar and any formal corporate action filings. [OddsShopper, Oct 7]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
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