Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 80%: Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (80% YES). Epstein Files Update: Trump’s DOJ Faces New Watchdog Audit.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump’s recent public pledge to release Pentagon files on unidentified aerial phenomena has converged with a new congressional push, driving the probability that Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31 to 80% on political prediction markets. On April 21, 2026, Trump stated the Pentagon would release documents “very, very soon,” a remark that Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett amplified on NewsNation, claiming he had seen “pictures and video of things that defy any reason” and demanding full government transparency. Burchett’s comments, reported by the New York Post on April 24, underscore a bipartisan legislative appetite for disclosure, with multiple House members signaling they will push for a formal vote on a UFO transparency bill before the end of the current session. The 80% YES probability reflects market confidence that Trump’s executive action, combined with mounting congressional pressure, will result in a declassification order by the December 31 deadline. [New York Post, Apr 24]

The political calculus behind this market is heavily influenced by the Trump administration’s parallel struggle with the Epstein Files Transparency Act, a law passed by Congress in fall 2025 that mandated the release of all records related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. On April 23, 2026, the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General announced an audit to determine whether the Trump administration had complied with the law, after victims discovered their personal information was made public in earlier releases. The audit, reported by Newsweek and the Associated Press on April 23, follows Trump’s firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi earlier in the month, partly over her handling of the Epstein files. This procedural milestone—a formal watchdog investigation—creates a precedent for transparency enforcement that could extend to UFO files, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle cite the Epstein Act as a model for compelling declassification. The 20% NO probability on the market reflects skepticism that the administration will meet the December deadline, given the ongoing legal and bureaucratic friction over similar disclosure mandates. [Newsweek, Apr 23] [AP, Apr 23]

What happens next hinges on a series of procedural and legislative deadlines. The Epstein Act audit, expected to conclude by late summer 2026, will set a benchmark for how the Trump administration handles congressionally mandated document releases. Separately, House Oversight Committee members, including Burchett, are drafting a UFO transparency bill that could come to a committee vote as early as June 2026, with a floor vote possible before the November midterm elections. If that legislation passes, it would compel the Pentagon to declassify specific files by a statutory deadline, potentially aligning with or superseding Trump’s executive pledge. The 80% YES probability on the market suggests traders expect Trump to preempt legislative action by issuing an executive order before December 31, a move that would allow him to claim credit for transparency while avoiding a drawn-out congressional fight. However, the 20% NO camp points to the Epstein files controversy as evidence that the administration’s internal processes are too slow and politically fraught to meet the year-end target. [Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 80c YES.