As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?” at 5% YES with $81K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: trump renames strait of hormuz to "strait of trump" by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 8c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 92c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 97c | 92% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 92c — market prices it at 95c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds NO at 93c, indicating a high-conviction bet against the renaming event. This smart money entry near the top of the range signals confidence in the status quo, and their lack of YES exposure suggests they see no realistic path to a YES outcome by year-end.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.4K | +2% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 93c, while YES has no profitable holders, reinforcing strong bearish sentiment. The 5c YES price reflects minimal buying interest, and the dominant NO side suggests price is unlikely to rise without significant new catalysts.
Significant 49-cent gap: Polymarket at 5c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 8c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $81K |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 8c | — |