Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Kevin Warsh set to clear key Senate hurdle to replace Fed chair Powell.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether President Trump will attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends currently sits at 7% YES and 93% NO, reflecting a political landscape where the procedural path to removal has narrowed significantly. This low probability comes as the Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, to confirm Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, as Powell’s successor. All 13 Republicans on the panel are expected to support Warsh after Senator Thom Tillis dropped his opposition, following the Department of Justice’s decision to end a criminal investigation into Powell over Fed building renovation cost overruns. The full Senate confirmation of Warsh, a former Fed governor, appears likely, which would render a direct firing of Powell largely moot as his chair term expires on May 15, 2026. [Guardian, Apr 29]

The context for the "trump try to fire powell as fed chair before he leaves" market is deeply intertwined with ongoing legal and institutional tensions. Powell has publicly stated he will not leave the Fed’s board of governors until the Trump administration’s investigation is dropped “with transparency and finality,” a stance he reiterated in March. However, Trump last week insisted the matter had not been “dropped” and continued attacking Powell over the renovation costs, signaling that the president may still seek to remove Powell via executive action before Warsh’s confirmation is finalized. The Department of Justice’s move to defer the probe to the Fed’s own Office of Inspector General has not satisfied Powell’s demand for a clean resolution, keeping the possibility of a dramatic firing alive, albeit at a low probability. [CNN, Apr 29]

What happens next hinges on two key procedural milestones: the Senate Banking Committee vote on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, and Powell’s own announcement expected after the Fed’s meeting that same day regarding whether he will remain on the board of governors. If Warsh is confirmed quickly, the question of whether Trump will try to fire Powell becomes academic, as the transition would occur on schedule. However, if the confirmation stalls or Powell signals he will stay on the board to shield himself from legal pressure, the market’s 7% YES probability could shift. The broader political calculus suggests that Trump’s crusade against Powell has backfired, with the investigation’s end strengthening the Fed chair’s position and reducing the likelihood of a last-minute firing. [Greenwich Time, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $89K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($89K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 7c YES.