Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?” at 88% YES with $644K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo is favored at 88% to become Spain's next prime minister, though Pedro Sánchez remains a possible alternative.

What’s Happening

Spain's general election is set for November 29, 2026, with conservative challenger Alberto Núñez Feijóo positioning himself as the favorite to become the country's next prime minister. Feijóo, whose People's Party (PP) has led polls for years, launched his campaign alongside Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in mid-October, with both leaders targeting each other's vulnerabilities ahead of the vote. The PP leader has vowed to "undo eight years of Socialist rule" and confirmed he would consider forming a governing coalition with the far-right Vox party if election results require it, with Vox expected to demand a deputy prime minister post in such a partnership. [Politico, Oct 23]

Recent polling data underscores Feijóo's advantage in the race to become Spain's next prime minister. On Polymarket, Alberto Núñez Feijóo holds an 84.5% probability of becoming the next prime minister, compared to 11.2% for Sánchez and 2.5% for Vox leader Santiago Abascal, with US$2.6 million traded on the contract. Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, shows similar sentiment with Feijóo at 81%, Sánchez at 13%, and Abascal at 9% across 35,696 contracts. On the question of which party wins the most seats on November 29, the PP leads at 84.5% versus the Socialists at 15.5%. [Riotimesonline, Oct 21]

The election outcome will hinge on coalition arithmetic, with Vox emerging as a decisive player. Vox leader Santiago Abascal is "confidently setting conditions for cooperation," prioritizing economic deregulation and a significantly tougher migration policy, including deporting foreign nationals to their countries of origin. Feijóo's center-right PP has led polls for years, but the need for Vox's support in a potential coalition government introduces procedural complexity to the path toward confirming Alberto Núñez Feijóo as Spain's next prime minister. Campaign rallies kicked off in mid-October, with the formal vote set for late November and coalition negotiations expected to follow. [InfoMigrants, Oct 07]

Traded on Polymarket — $644K Volume