AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 18c |
64%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 40c |
20%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 30c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 67c is now firmly in profit at 65c NO equivalent, validating the thesis that 3.7% April inflation overshoots consensus. The single tracked wallet shows directional conviction against the inflation print, with no offsetting YES entries to counter-balance. Entry quality and unrealized gains argue for continued NO drift toward resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $19.0K | -7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$9,315 on $19.0K capital deployed (avg +49.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35c | $63.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 29c | — | ✓ matched |