AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Single-wallet YES exposure at 2c reads as a cheap-optionality lottery ticket, not a directional thesis on Atletico lifting the trophy. Dominant NO flow across the broader book confirms the consensus: this is a fade, and the 8c print is noise from low-conviction longshot buyers, not informed positioning.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x33c2..18 | MM | YES | $1.6K | +274% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,556 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $24.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |