As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?” at 86% YES with $395K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 91%: Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (91% YES). More recently, The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic shifted a planned IPO from October to November 2026.
Anthropic's path to public markets has narrowed to a late-2026 window, with The Wall Street Journal reporting the company shifted a planned IPO from October to November 2026, according to SmartAsset. The company confidentially filed and has not published a prospectus, leaving no confirmed listing date. The Anthropic IPO by December 15 remains a live question for investors tracking the timeline, with the company having raised $65 billion in May 2026 at a $965 billion post-money valuation and reporting run-rate revenue above $47 billion earlier that month. [Smartasset, Oct 02]
Market-implied probabilities have repriced sharply around the Anthropic IPO by December 15 contract. CryptoSlate reported Polymarket odds of 92% for December 15, 2026 and 92.9% for December 31, 2026, against 82.5% for November 30, on $6.22 million in volume and $185,990 in liquidity as of Nov 2, 2026. Earlier, Quiver Quantitative recorded a $14,939 Yes purchase at 59% odds on the November 30 outcome, when December 15 traded at 76% — a roughly 16-point repricing in under three weeks. [Cryptoslate, Oct 25]
Fundamentals continue to support the timeline. Anthropic claimed its annualized revenue run rate rose sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion at the end of July, and the New York Times reported the company was on pace for $100 billion in annualized revenue by year-end 2026, per CNBC. New Constructs called it a potential "most ridiculous IPO," citing a path toward a $2 trillion market cap without having seen the filing. Next catalysts: a public prospectus and any formal listing date confirmation. [CNBC, Oct 07]
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