AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
86%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 22c |
48%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, entering at 94c-95c, signaling conviction that no candidate will secure an outright first-round majority. Their concentrated high-probability NO entries suggest smart money sees the runoff as the base case, with little incentive to chase the low-priced YES side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $13.0K | +0% | |
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.4K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$878 on $14.4K capital deployed (avg +6.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |