As of October 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ” at 5% YES with $344K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will anyone be jailed over epstein disclosures? .
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 94c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 95c. 6-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 86c, signaling conviction that no jailings will materialize from the Epstein disclosures. With no YES entries from this wallet, smart money is treating the 5c YES as a lottery ticket rather than a credible outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $1.4K | +9% |
With YES at 5c, every YES position is underwater while all NO holders are in profit, creating strong asymmetric pressure against the upside. The 86c NO entry shows sellers are locking in gains near the floor, reinforcing the 5c price as a ceiling rather than a springboard.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $344K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $344K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |