Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES). · 2 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Defending champions Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner top the 2026 U.S.

What’s Happening

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 Women’s US Open as the two-time defending champion, having lifted her fourth major trophy at Flushing Meadows last year. The Belarusian tops the official entry list released on July 21, 2026, and is bidding to become the first woman to win three consecutive US Open crowns since Serena Williams’ run from 2014-2016. Sabalenka is one of five former champions directly entered this year, alongside Coco Gauff (2024), Iga Swiatek (2022), Naomi Osaka (2018, 2020), and Emma Raducanu (2021). Despite not winning a Grand Slam earlier in the 2026 season, she remains the world number one and a likely title contender, with the draw featuring 17 former Grand Slam singles champions across both fields [Wtatennis, Jul 21].

The market currently prices Sabalenka’s chances of winning the 2026 Women’s US Open at 30% YES / 70% NO, reflecting both her dominance on hard courts and the depth of the challenger field. Sabalenka’s path to a third straight title is complicated by the presence of top-ranked rivals: Iga Swiatek, who won the 2022 title, and Coco Gauff, the 2023 champion, are both directly entered. Additionally, the American contingent is led by No. 4 Gauff, No. 9 Amanda Anisimova, and former finalists Jessica Pegula (2024) and Anisimova (2025), all of whom have gone deep in New York in recent years. Sabalenka’s 2026 season has been notable for her mixed doubles partnership with Novak Djokovic, a star-studded team set to compete on August 25-26 at Arthur Ashe Stadium, adding an extra layer of attention to her Flushing Meadows campaign [Usopen, Jul 21].

What happens next hinges on the tournament draw and Sabalenka’s form in the lead-up to the main draw, which begins in late August. The entry list, finalized on July 31, 2026, confirms Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner as the top seeds, with the women’s singles event featuring 11 former Grand Slam champions. Sabalenka’s bid for a three-peat would place her alongside Serena Williams as the only women in the Open Era to achieve that feat at the US Open. The mixed doubles event, revamped in 2025 with a $1 million prize, will see Sabalenka and Djokovic team up in an eight-team qualifying tournament on August 24, potentially impacting her singles preparation. With the tournament less than a month away, Sabalenka’s hard-court pedigree and world No. 1 ranking make her the clear favorite, though the 30% probability in the market suggests significant uncertainty given the strength of the field [Olympics, Jul 30].

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 30c YES.