Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?” at 40% YES with $289K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). Sabalenka hasn't won a major this year, but she did win titles in Miami, Indian Wells, and Brisbane, Australia, while No.

What’s Happening

Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 Women’s US Open as the two-time defending champion and world No. 1, but her path to a third consecutive title in Flushing Meadows is fraught with ranking pressure. The Belarusian has not won a major in 2026, though she claimed titles in Miami, Indian Wells, and Brisbane, while Elena Rybakina defeated her in the Australian Open final in January. Sabalenka holds 8,575 ranking points to Rybakina’s 8,141, a gap of just 434, and because she is defending a full title’s worth of points at this tournament, she has almost no cushion — Rybakina can take over the top spot simply by reaching the semifinals, regardless of Sabalenka’s results [USA Today, Aug 31].

The betting market reflects the uncertainty surrounding Sabalenka’s bid for history. Only Chris Evert and Serena Williams have won the U.S. Open three straight years in the Open Era, and Sabalenka can match that feat with a victory in 2026 after capturing the title in both 2024 and 2025. She is set to face Polina Iatcenko in the second round on Sept. 2, with oddsmakers listing her as the favorite at roughly 23% to win the tournament, ahead of Coco Gauff at 16%, Iga Swiatek at 15%, and Jessica Pegula at 9% [Sports Illustrated, Sep 02]. Rybakina, meanwhile, is listed at just 5% despite her Australian Open title, largely due to a leg injury sustained in Cincinnati two weeks ago, though she says she is healthy enough to compete [News, Aug 30].

The 2026 Women’s US Open has become a four-way battle for the No. 1 ranking involving Sabalenka, Rybakina, Pegula, and Gauff, with the outcome of this fortnight likely to reshape the top of women’s tennis. Sabalenka’s current probability of winning the tournament stands at 24% in one market, reflecting the stiff competition and her own inconsistent major results this season. As the tournament progresses past the second round, the key question is whether Sabalenka can hold off a healthy Rybakina and a surging Gauff, who are both within striking distance of the top ranking. The next few matches will determine if Sabalenka can extend her New York dominance or cede ground to a new generation of challengers [Yahoo Sports, Aug 31].

Traded on Polymarket — $289K Volume