AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction — 4 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 14c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 67c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 45c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioning is minimal — one wallet at entry price signals reconnaissance, not conviction. A 16c entry on a top-tier favorite (Spain is consensus pre-tournament contender) implies the wallet views current odds as fair-to-slightly-cheap rather than mispriced alpha. Directional read: neutral-to-mildly-bullish YES, but single-wallet exposure is insufficient to confirm a smart-money thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | YES | $1.4K | -11% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $14.4K | -16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$78,869 on $15.8K capital deployed (avg +498.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $152.2M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 45c | — | × missed |