As of September 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” at 6% YES with $2.6M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will avigdor lieberman be the next prime minister of israel?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 94c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 93c, signaling conviction that Lieberman will not be the next Prime Minister. This smart-money positioning aligns with the broader market's 94% implied probability against YES, suggesting no near-term catalyst is expected to shift the outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $1.0K | +1% |
With YES at 6c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 93c are in profit, creating strong resistance for any YES rally. The 93c NO entry implies the market assigns roughly a 93% probability against Lieberman becoming PM, leaving minimal upside for YES holders. This asymmetry caps YES price support and reinforces the dominant bearish sentiment.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $2.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.6M |
| Our Model | 11c | — |