Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

What’s Happening

Israeli elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and Avigdor Lieberman has formally declared his candidacy for prime minister, despite his Yisrael Beytenu party polling at just nine seats in the 120-seat Knesset. In a May 19 statement, Lieberman said his goal for the upcoming election is to become prime minister, even as the Together slate led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid projects to 24 seats per a Zman Yisrael poll. The gap underscores the long-shot nature of the avigdor lieberman next prime minister of israel scenario, yet Lieberman has repeatedly framed himself as a kingmaker who could force a coalition realignment if opposition parties consolidate around him [Times of Israel, May 19].

Lieberman’s path to the premiership faces structural hurdles beyond polling. On August 3, he rejected a directive from Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot, who urged smaller opposition parties not to insist on seeking the top job. Lieberman countered that opposition members should remain focused on toppling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government rather than arguing over leadership, while separately vowing on May 6 not to sit with Netanyahu in any coalition. His stated twin goals — replacing the “October 7 government” and becoming prime minister — have not translated into broader opposition unity, as Bennett and Lapid control a larger bloc and are unlikely to cede the premiership to a nine-seat party leader [Jerusalem Post, Aug 03].

The election calendar now drives the procedural timeline. Candidate filing deadlines and party-list submissions are expected in the weeks ahead, with the October 27 vote serving as the decisive milestone. Lieberman has called for a “decisive outcome” on all military fronts and remains in contact with other parties regarding pre-election alliances to boost opposition mandates. However, historical precedent is unfavorable: in September 2019, NPR noted that Lieberman would not be Israel’s next prime minister but could decide who would be, a role he has played repeatedly without securing the top office. With Together polling at more than double Yisrael Beytenu’s projected seat count, the avigdor lieberman next prime minister of israel outcome hinges on either a dramatic polling shift or a fractured coalition scenario where Lieberman emerges as a compromise candidate [NPR, Sep 16].

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