As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” at 5% YES with $2.6M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will avigdor lieberman be the next prime minister of israel?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 92% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 95c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds NO positions entered at 93c, indicating a high-conviction, early bet against Lieberman that has paid off massively. This smart money entry near the top of the NO range signals they viewed the probability of Lieberman as PM as extremely low from the start, and their continued holding suggests no reversal is expected. The absence of YES entries from this wallet further confirms a one-sided bearish stance on Lieberman's chances.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $1.0K | +2% |
NO traders are deeply profitable, with entries at 93c against a current YES price of 5c, implying near-certain market conviction against Lieberman. This entrenched profit-taking zone for NO creates strong resistance to any YES rally, as NO holders can sell into strength without loss. The 0% YES profitability suggests any YES buyers are underwater, likely deterring fresh bullish capital and reinforcing the low price.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $2.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $2.6M |
| Our Model | 9c | — |