As of September 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $1.3M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will bitcoin reach $130,000 by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 95c. 7-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 91c, signaling conviction that Bitcoin will not reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This one-sided positioning suggests informed money sees the $130k target as highly unlikely within the timeframe.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5cc..a4 | MM | NO | $7.7K | +4% |
With YES at 5c, every YES position is deeply underwater while all NO entries at 91c are in profit, creating a lopsided P&L picture. The profitable NO cohort has strong incentive to hold or add, reinforcing 91c as firm resistance and capping any YES rally. This asymmetry keeps downward pressure on YES pricing, as exit liquidity for YES is scarce and NO holders face little drawdown risk.
Significant 25-cent gap: Polymarket at 5c vs Kalshi at 30c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 12c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $1.3M |
| Kalshi | 30c | — |
| Our Model | 12c | — |