AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 67c |
34%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 82c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 75c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 78c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 80c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | YES | $1.9K | +18% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,065 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +54.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $971.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 80c | — | ✓ matched |