AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
90%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO on a novelty candidate, entering at 92-93c to fade Count Binface's chances — a textbook near-certainty fade on a satirical protest candidate with no realistic path to winning a by-election. The one-sided book with no YES tracking signals directional agreement that this market resolves NO, and the 8c YES price should be read as noise/lottery money rather than informed positioning.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8ebf..ce | MM | NO | $7.6K | +2% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.6K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$821 on $10.2K capital deployed (avg +8.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |