Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). World Cup Group L standings 2026: Updated results, table and fixtures for England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama.

What’s Happening

Croatia opened their 2026 FIFA World Cup Group L campaign with a 3-2 loss to England at Dallas Stadium on June 17, 2026, leaving them bottom of the four-team group on zero points after matchday one. The defeat was the fourth meeting between the two nations at a major tournament this century, with Croatia having previously won just one of those encounters. Harry Kane and the Three Lions punched first in the marquee opener, while Luka Modrić's side were unable to overturn the deficit. The result tilts the path to croatia win group l in the fifa world cup heavily against the Vatreni, who now need England to drop points across their remaining fixtures against Ghana and Panama. [Opta Analyst, Jun 17]

Croatia entered the tournament with strong recent precedent, having reached the World Cup semi-finals twice in the last two editions — runners-up in Russia 2018 and third place in Qatar 2022. Across six total World Cup appearances, Croatia have advanced past the group stage three times, a record that suggests group qualification remains plausible even after an opening defeat. However, winning the group is a steeper task: England arrived as one of the pre-tournament favourites, and the current Group L odds reflect a wide gap between the Three Lions and the rest of the field. The standings now read England top with three points, Croatia, Ghana and Panama level on zero ahead of matchday two. [Sporting News, Jun 11]

Croatia's remaining schedule includes fixtures against Ghana and Panama, while England face the same two opponents on June 23, 2026 in Boston. For croatia win group l in the fifa world cup to materialise, the scenario most likely requires Croatia winning both remaining matches by significant margins while England drop points against either Ghana or Panama, with goal difference becoming decisive. Group L is the first iteration of that letter at a World Cup since 1982, following the tournament's expansion to 48 teams. Croatia's knockout path from second place would be considered more navigable than the group-winner bracket, a factor that shapes how the remaining games may be contested tactically. [FOX Sports, Jun 17]

Traded on Polymarket — $74K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($74K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.