As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?” at 28% YES with $342K traded. 5 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Alaska is known as a red state.
The Alaska Senate race in 2026 has taken a chaotic turn, with the general election ballot now featuring two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan finished third in the August primary behind Democrat Mary Peltola and fellow Republican Dan J. Sullivan, a former teacher, but advanced after fourth-place finisher David Leslie withdrew on Monday, Aug. 31, elevating fifth-place finisher Gerald Heikes to the ballot with just 1.1% of the vote. The unusual scenario means voters can rank both Dan Sullivans on their ranked-choice ballots, with the stronger candidate likely absorbing the other’s transfers — a dynamic that complicates the dan sullivan alaska senate race in ways that favor the incumbent, who retains name recognition and party infrastructure [Alaska Beacon, Sep 01].
The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically since July, when the Cook Political Report moved the dan sullivan alaska senate race in to a toss-up. Peltola, who came in first in the four-way primary, has led in several polls, capitalizing on her 2022 U.S. House victory and moderate Democratic appeal in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008. In response, former President Donald Trump plans to campaign for Sen. Sullivan in the coming weeks, a move that could energize the Republican base but also risks alienating independent voters in a state known for ticket-splitting. The race has also drawn national spending attention, with wealthy donors on both sides pouring money into ads, mirroring the record $100 million spent in Wisconsin’s 2025 Supreme Court contest [Native News Online, Sep 03].
Looking ahead, the November ballot will feature Sen. Sullivan, Peltola, and the second Dan Sullivan, with ranked-choice voting determining the winner if no candidate secures a majority on the first count. The presence of two Republicans could split the conservative vote in early rounds, potentially boosting Peltola’s chances, though transferable ballots may consolidate behind the incumbent. The Alaska Division of Elections has confirmed the final ballot order, and candidate filing deadlines have passed, meaning no further changes are expected. With early voting beginning in October and the general election set for Nov. 3, 2026, the dan sullivan alaska senate race in remains a focal point for national control of the chamber, as both parties view Alaska as a rare pickup opportunity [PBS News, Aug 18].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 23c vs market 28c. BUY NO at 28c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 76c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 77c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 76c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 78c | 72% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (74–82c vs 72c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 77c — market prices it at 72c. 5-point gap supports NO.
Five tracked wallets show smart money leaning heavily NO, with entries at 62c-78c reflecting conviction that Dan Sullivan will not win. The YES entries at 22c-25c are likely speculative or hedging positions, not strong directional bets, given the small size and lower conviction. Overall, the wallet activity signals a clear bearish (NO) bias, implying the market expects Sullivan to lose.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd039..32 | Smart | NO | $8.4K | +1% | |
| 0x011f..22 | Smart | YES | $2.2K | +25% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $6.9K | +10% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $1.7K | +13% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $1.4K | -7% |
All YES positions are in profit with entries at 22c-25c against a current 28c price, giving YES holders modest gains but no urgency to sell. Meanwhile, 67% of NO positions are profitable, with entries at 62c-78c now worth 72c, indicating that the dominant NO side has strong price support and little incentive to exit. This asymmetry suggests the market is likely to hold or drift toward the NO consensus as profitable NO holders defend their edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 28c with $342K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 23c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 28c | $342K |
| Our Model | 23c | — |