As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?” at 36% YES with $138K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Alaska is known as a red state.
The Alaska Senate race in 2026 has taken a chaotic turn, with the general election ballot now featuring two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan finished third in the August primary behind Democrat Mary Peltola and fellow Republican Dan J. Sullivan, a former teacher, but advanced after fourth-place finisher David Leslie withdrew on Monday, Aug. 31, elevating fifth-place finisher Gerald Heikes to the ballot with just 1.1% of the vote. The unusual scenario means voters can rank both Dan Sullivans on their ranked-choice ballots, with the stronger candidate likely absorbing the other’s transfers — a dynamic that complicates the dan sullivan alaska senate race in ways that favor the incumbent, who retains name recognition and party infrastructure [Alaska Beacon, Sep 01].
The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically since July, when the Cook Political Report moved the dan sullivan alaska senate race in to a toss-up. Peltola, who came in first in the four-way primary, has led in several polls, capitalizing on her 2022 U.S. House victory and moderate Democratic appeal in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008. In response, former President Donald Trump plans to campaign for Sen. Sullivan in the coming weeks, a move that could energize the Republican base but also risks alienating independent voters in a state known for ticket-splitting. The race has also drawn national spending attention, with wealthy donors on both sides pouring money into ads, mirroring the record $100 million spent in Wisconsin’s 2025 Supreme Court contest [Native News Online, Sep 03].
Looking ahead, the November ballot will feature Sen. Sullivan, Peltola, and the second Dan Sullivan, with ranked-choice voting determining the winner if no candidate secures a majority on the first count. The presence of two Republicans could split the conservative vote in early rounds, potentially boosting Peltola’s chances, though transferable ballots may consolidate behind the incumbent. The Alaska Division of Elections has confirmed the final ballot order, and candidate filing deadlines have passed, meaning no further changes are expected. With early voting beginning in October and the general election set for Nov. 3, 2026, the dan sullivan alaska senate race in remains a focal point for national control of the chamber, as both parties view Alaska as a rare pickup opportunity [PBS News, Aug 18].
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Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 23c vs market 36c. BUY NO at 36c — models see 13c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 59c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 67c | 56% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 72c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (59–98c vs 64c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 77c — market prices it at 64c. 13-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet holds NO at 62c, signaling a confident bet against Sullivan's re-election from an early stage. This positioning implies smart money sees a clear path to a NO outcome, and the lack of YES entries suggests no informed accumulation on the YES side, reinforcing bearish sentiment for Sullivan.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $1.8K | +2% |
All tracked YES positions are underwater, with no profitable YES holders, while 100% of NO positions are in profit, indicating strong selling pressure on YES. The NO entry at 62c suggests early buyers are comfortably ahead, and the current 36c YES price reflects a market heavily favoring Sullivan's defeat, with limited upside support for YES unless new capital enters.
Polymarket prices YES at 36c with $138K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 23c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36c | $138K |
| Our Model | 23c | — |