Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

As of August 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?” at 7% YES with $63K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Michael could be less likely to earn a nomination in the Best Picture category.

What’s Happening

As of late July 2026, the race for the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards is heavily favoring Christopher Nolan’s *The Odyssey*, with prediction market data placing the probability that *Dune: Messiah* gets the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards at just 10%. This reflects a consensus among major awards trackers, including AwardsWatch, which currently slots Denis Villeneuve’s sequel at No. 9 in its Best Director rankings, while *The Odyssey* holds the top spot across multiple categories [AwardsWatch, Jul 29]. The market’s 90% NO probability reflects the structural reality that *The Odyssey* is projected to dominate technical and below-the-line categories, whereas *Dune: Messiah* is seen as a strong but secondary contender, particularly in craft categories like cinematography and visual effects [Next Best Picture, Mar 18].

The key development driving this dynamic is the April 2026 release of *Michael*, a biopic that has underperformed in early Oscar forecasts, while *The Odyssey* has consolidated frontrunner status following its May 2026 Cannes premiere. Newsweek’s analysis notes that Variety’s predictions do not include *Michael* in Best Picture, and early betting on Polymarket favors *The Odyssey* for the most nominations, followed by *Dune: Messiah* and *Project Hail Mary* [Newsweek, Apr 27]. For *Dune: Messiah* to overcome the odds and get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards, it would need a sweep in below-the-line categories—sound, editing, production design, and visual effects—while also gaining unexpected traction in acting and writing categories, a scenario that even bullish observers consider unlikely given the sequel’s mixed critical reception compared to its predecessor [Next Best Picture, Mar 18].

The structural factor that will determine whether *Dune: Messiah* gets the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards is the Academy’s preferential ballot system and the expansion of the Best Picture field to 10 slots, which historically benefits blockbusters but also spreads nominations across multiple films. Nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 21, 2027, with the ceremony on Sunday, March 14 [Newsweek, Apr 27]. While *The Odyssey* is projected to earn 12-14 nominations, *Dune: Messiah* is expected to land in the 8-10 range, meaning the market’s 10% YES probability is pricing in a scenario where Nolan’s film underperforms with below-the-line branches—a rare but not unprecedented outcome, as seen with *Dune* (2021) which won six Oscars but lost the Best Picture race to *CODA* [Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume