Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). Gruff and unpolished, Gadi Eisenkot is becoming the face of the anti-Netanyahu movement.

What’s Happening

A Channel 12 News poll published Monday, July 6 showed former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party drawing level with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, with both projected to win 23 seats. The survey gave the opposition bloc a projected 68-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset and, notably, edged Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu in the head-to-head question of who is best suited to serve as premier. The result marks a one-seat gain for Yashar and underscores why the question of whether Gadi Eizenkot becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel has moved from hypothetical to central in the run-up to the 2026 election. Bennett's Together party slipped to 16 seats in the same poll. [Haaretz, Jul 7]

Eisenkot formally launched Yashar at an event near Hod Hasharon on June 30, 2026, positioning the gruff former general as the emerging face of the anti-Netanyahu opposition. His surge has already drawn direct fire from the prime minister, who at a Sunday, July 5 cabinet meeting accused Eisenkot and Blue and White chief Benny Gantz of having backed Hamas's terms during their tenure in the war cabinet, telling ministers "there is no longer left and right here." The sharpening attacks signal that the campaign to determine the next Prime Minister of Israel will be a bruising one, with Netanyahu framing his former military chief as a covert leftist despite Eisenkot's security credentials. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 6]

The electoral fight is unfolding against a constitutional standoff over the state comptroller. On Wednesday, July 8, Justice Minister Yariv Levin urged the Knesset to ignore a High Court of Justice ruling that invalidated last month's comptroller election and ordered a new vote, insisting Michael Rabello take the post regardless. Eisenkot responded by branding Levin an "enemy of Israeli democracy," a clash that keeps rule-of-law questions at the center of the campaign. With no fixed election date yet locked and the opposition bloc holding a projected majority, the coming weeks of polling and coalition maneuvering will shape whether Gadi Eizenkot can convert his lead into a path to power. [Times of Israel, Jul 8]

Traded on Polymarket — $1.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 40c YES.