As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” at 56% YES with $1.9M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Eizenkot, a former IDF chief, holds no independent party bloc and faces steep coalition math ahead of the Oct 27 vote, keeping his odds near a coin-flip.
Senior officials from several Arab countries have opened back-channel discussions with people close to former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 election, according to two sources familiar with the talks. The outreach is explicitly framed around the scenario in which Eisenkot forms a government, signaling that regional actors are actively preparing for a post-Netanyahu premiership. The contacts underscore how quickly the question of whether Gadi Eizenkot will be the next prime minister of Israel has moved from speculation to operational planning, even as no ballots have been cast and coalition math remains unsettled. [Jerusalem Post, Sep 03]
Polling reinforces the momentum. A Channel 12 survey dated July 13, 2026 put Eisenkot as the preferred prime minister for 43% of the public versus 34% for Benjamin Netanyahu, while a concurrent Channel 13 poll projected his Yashar party holding a narrow 23-to-22-seat lead over Likud. An August Times of Israel poll similarly showed Eisenkot opening a lead, though both the right-wing and opposition blocs fell short of a 61-seat Knesset majority. The vote alone does not settle the outcome: Israeli coalition-building is the decisive procedural hurdle, and analysts note both leading candidates are expected to struggle to assemble a governing bloc. [Times of Israel, Aug 13]
The path to whether Gadi Eizenkot becomes the next prime minister of Israel runs through rival opposition figures. Yair Lapid has said he would form a government with Eisenkot as a partner but argued Naftali Bennett should be premier, while Yisrael Beitenu promoted leader Avigdor Lieberman as its own candidate. Eisenkot has countered that "the next prime minister must be the head of the largest party in the bloc," a direct rebuke of Bennett's 2021-2022 tenure atop a seven-seat faction. With the October 27 legislation and filing deadlines approaching, the contest now hinges on post-election negotiations rather than the topline vote, and Israeli politics leaves room for a last-minute dark-horse result. [Al-Monitor, Aug 27]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 55c. BUY NO at 55c — models see 41c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 46c | 35% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (75–98c vs 45c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 45c. 41-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned on NO at 48c, signaling conviction that Eizenkot will not become the next Prime Minister. That NO entry below the current 55c YES price implies the wallet expects YES to fall toward or below 48c, reinforcing the dominant NO-side lean.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x011f..22 | Smart | NO | $1.1K | -8% |
With YES at 55c, all tracked positions are underwater: YES holders are 0% in profit and NO entries at 48c are also 0% in profit, implying the current price sits above both entry cohorts' breakeven. The lack of profitable positions on either side removes a natural support bid, leaving the 55c YES level vulnerable to further downside if holders capitulate.
Polymarket prices YES at 56c with $1.9M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Significant 42-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56c | $1.9M |
| Our Model | 14c | — |