Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). Ultra-Orthodox Parties Push Knesset Dissolution: 'We Don't Believe Netanyahu's Promises'.

What’s Happening

The likelihood of former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot becoming the next prime minister remains low but has gained renewed attention amid a severe coalition crisis. On Monday, May 18, 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties pushed for a bill to dissolve the Knesset, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of making hollow promises on a draft exemption bill. A source within the Degel Hatorah party explicitly stated that if the next coalition hinges on the Haredi vote, "there is a good chance Gadi Eizenkot will be the next prime minister." This legislative maneuver underscores the fragility of the current government, as the draft bill debate has become a flashpoint that could trigger an early election, directly impacting the political calculus around Eizenkot's potential candidacy. [Haaretz, Mon May 18]

The political landscape is further complicated by multiple contenders publicly declaring their ambitions. On Tuesday, May 19, 2026, MK Avigdor Liberman stated his goal is to become prime minister, despite his Yisrael Beytenu party polling at only nine seats, far behind the Together slate led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which projects to 24 seats. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump jokingly suggested he might run for prime minister of Israel, adding an unpredictable layer to the discourse. These declarations, combined with the ongoing polarization described in a Thursday, May 21, 2026 analysis, indicate that the next election—likely triggered by the Knesset dissolution vote—will be dominated by coalition arithmetic rather than security issues. Eizenkot, a centrist figure with military credentials, could emerge as a compromise candidate if the fragmented opposition fails to unite behind a single leader. [Times of Israel, Tue May 19]

Looking ahead, the procedural path to Eizenkot becoming prime minister hinges on the Knesset dissolution vote and subsequent election timeline. If the ultra-Orthodox parties succeed in dissolving the legislature, a snap election would likely be held within 90 days, forcing all parties to finalize candidate lists by a statutory deadline. The current 14% probability assigned to Eizenkot's ascension reflects his status as a relatively new political figure without a established party base, but the instability of the Netanyahu coalition—exacerbated by Trump's pressure on the prime minister and the ongoing war footing—creates a narrow window. For Eizenkot to succeed, he would need to either lead a new centrist slate or be drafted as a unity candidate after the election, a scenario that remains speculative but not impossible given the current deadlock. [Jerusalem Post, Thu May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $809K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $809K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.