Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). Yashar party head Gadi Eisenkot at the Knesset in June.

What’s Happening

With Israel’s general election set for October 27, 2026, former military chief Gadi Eizenkot has overtaken Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent polling, positioning the “gadi eizenkot next prime minister of israel” question as the central contest of the campaign. A Channel 12 poll published August 10 projects Eizenkot’s Yashar party winning 24 Knesset seats versus 22 for Netanyahu’s Likud, with the broader opposition bloc landing at 60 seats—one short of a majority without Arab parties. That same survey marks the first time Yashar has led Likud outright, cementing Eizenkot’s status as Netanyahu’s principal opponent after the former IDF chief of staff launched his party’s campaign on June 30 in Hod Aharon. [Haaretz, Aug 11]

The shift matters because coalition arithmetic, not just the popular vote, will determine who forms the next government. Eizenkot’s Yashar party has bypassed Likud in a separate Al-Monitor poll from July 9, and the former army chief—who served as minister without portfolio in a previous war cabinet—has framed his campaign around security credibility and anti-corruption messaging. However, Britannica’s election analysis notes that both Netanyahu and Eizenkot are expected to struggle to form a coalition, with Israeli politics prone to rapid shifts and a possible last-minute dark horse candidacy, including from Naftali Bennett. The October 27 vote will be Netanyahu’s toughest electoral test in his political career, according to Middle East Eye’s profile of Eizenkot published July 28. [Al-Monitor, Jul 23]

Looking ahead, the procedural path to power runs through post-election coalition negotiations, with a 60-seat opposition bloc currently falling short of the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority Knesset. That leaves Arab parties—typically excluded from right-wing coalitions—as a potential kingmaker, or forces Yashar to court smaller factions. France24 reported on July 27 that Eizenkot has emerged as the main rival to Netanyahu ahead of the election, while the Haaretz poll indicates the opposition could still reach a majority if it secures support from outside the current bloc. The final campaign stretch will test whether Eizenkot can convert his polling lead into a durable coalition, with the “gadi eizenkot next prime minister of israel” outcome hinging on both the October 27 ballot and the ensuing horse-trading in Jerusalem. [France24, Jul 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $1.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 57c YES.