As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?” at 7% YES with $1.8M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Trump announced Hamas agreed to disarm under a 14-day road map, but traders stay skeptical at 22% YES, doubting a December deadline holds.
US President Donald Trump announced on July 30, 2026 that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with a senior Hamas official confirming to the BBC that the group had accepted the plan. Under the road map, terms were to be finalized within 14 days, advancing Trump's broader postwar vision of a stabilized, economically rebuilt Gaza Strip. The announcement marked a potential turning point after four months of talks in which whether Hamas would fully disarm had been the central sticking point. The question of whether Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 hinges on how quickly that framework converts into verified action. [BBC News, Jul 30]
The agreement's fine print points to a far longer horizon than a year-end deadline. A Board of Peace official said the surrender of heavy weapons and the decommissioning of Hamas tunnels would come later in a process spanning 200 to 350 days, a timeline that did not appear in the text obtained by The Associated Press. Under that verified copy, weapons held by Hamas-run police are to be transferred to a US-backed Palestinian technocratic committee, the National Committee, rather than to Israel. Sources close to Hamas said the group was willing to "confine and store" heavy arms under a Palestinian body but not hand them to Israel directly, underscoring why Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 remains contested. [Spectrum News/AP, Aug 04]
Sequencing is the key unresolved issue. Israel says it will withdraw its military only after Hamas completes genuine disarmament, while Hamas maintains that disarmament depends on a full Israeli withdrawal and the start of reconstruction. Analysts at the Atlantic Council noted that the initial Gaza deal secured the release of all Israeli hostages without an explicit end to the war, leaving disarmament as the final and hardest concession. With a multi-hundred-day decommissioning schedule and each side conditioning its steps on the other, completion of full disarmament before December 31, 2026 would require an accelerated timeline that neither party has yet committed to in writing. [Atlantic Council, Jul 31]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 94c. 7-point gap supports YES.
The lone tracked wallet positioned NO at 44c, signaling conviction that Hamas would not disarm by December 31, and that bet has been vindicated by the collapse to 6c. With no YES entries recorded, smart-money flow is one-sided and offers no counterweight to the bearish thesis. This positioning implies the market expects the disarmament condition to remain unmet through the deadline.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x47ab..df | MM | NO | $1.1K | +113% |
The single tracked position is a NO entry at 44c, now deeply in profit as YES trades at 6c, meaning the market has moved strongly against disarmament by year-end. With 100% of NO holders profitable and 0% of YES holders in the green, there is little incentive for NO holders to exit, reinforcing downward pressure on the YES price. Support for YES is effectively absent, leaving the 6c level vulnerable to further decay.
Polymarket prices YES at 7c with $1.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $1.8M |
| Our Model | 13c | — |