As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?” at 23% YES with $1.7M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Trump announced Hamas agreed to disarm under a 14-day road map, but traders stay skeptical at 22% YES, doubting a December deadline holds.
US President Donald Trump announced on July 30, 2026 that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with a senior Hamas official confirming to the BBC that the group had accepted the plan. Under the road map, terms were to be finalized within 14 days, advancing Trump's broader postwar vision of a stabilized, economically rebuilt Gaza Strip. The announcement marked a potential turning point after four months of talks in which whether Hamas would fully disarm had been the central sticking point. The question of whether Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 hinges on how quickly that framework converts into verified action. [BBC News, Jul 30]
The agreement's fine print points to a far longer horizon than a year-end deadline. A Board of Peace official said the surrender of heavy weapons and the decommissioning of Hamas tunnels would come later in a process spanning 200 to 350 days, a timeline that did not appear in the text obtained by The Associated Press. Under that verified copy, weapons held by Hamas-run police are to be transferred to a US-backed Palestinian technocratic committee, the National Committee, rather than to Israel. Sources close to Hamas said the group was willing to "confine and store" heavy arms under a Palestinian body but not hand them to Israel directly, underscoring why Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 remains contested. [Spectrum News/AP, Aug 04]
Sequencing is the key unresolved issue. Israel says it will withdraw its military only after Hamas completes genuine disarmament, while Hamas maintains that disarmament depends on a full Israeli withdrawal and the start of reconstruction. Analysts at the Atlantic Council noted that the initial Gaza deal secured the release of all Israeli hostages without an explicit end to the war, leaving disarmament as the final and hardest concession. With a multi-hundred-day decommissioning schedule and each side conditioning its steps on the other, completion of full disarmament before December 31, 2026 would require an accelerated timeline that neither party has yet committed to in writing. [Atlantic Council, Jul 31]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 61c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 80c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 47c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 72c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (61–88c vs 77c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 75c — market prices it at 77c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 63c, a bet now down roughly 63% as the market prices only a 23% chance of Hamas disarmament by December 31. With no NO entries recorded, there is no smart-money signal on the opposite side, but the lone YES position appears to be a losing contrarian bet rather than informed accumulation. The lack of follow-through buying at lower prices signals weak conviction and bearish direction for the YES contract.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.5K | -45% |
With YES trading at 23c, all tracked YES entries from 63c are deeply underwater, showing 0% in profit, while no NO entries exist to provide counterbalancing gains. The absence of profitable positions on either side suggests the current price reflects a sharp repricing against the sole tracked bet, with no supportive flow at higher levels. This leaves the market vulnerable to further downside if the lone YES holder capitulates.
Polymarket prices YES at 23c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 25c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 23c | $1.7M |
| Our Model | 25c | — |