As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?” at 22% YES with $1.6M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Trump announced Hamas agreed to disarm under a 14-day road map, but traders stay skeptical at 22% YES, doubting a December deadline holds.
US President Donald Trump announced on July 30, 2026 that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with a senior Hamas official confirming to the BBC that the group had accepted the plan. Under the road map, terms were to be finalized within 14 days, advancing Trump's broader postwar vision of a stabilized, economically rebuilt Gaza Strip. The announcement marked a potential turning point after four months of talks in which whether Hamas would fully disarm had been the central sticking point. The question of whether Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 hinges on how quickly that framework converts into verified action. [BBC News, Jul 30]
The agreement's fine print points to a far longer horizon than a year-end deadline. A Board of Peace official said the surrender of heavy weapons and the decommissioning of Hamas tunnels would come later in a process spanning 200 to 350 days, a timeline that did not appear in the text obtained by The Associated Press. Under that verified copy, weapons held by Hamas-run police are to be transferred to a US-backed Palestinian technocratic committee, the National Committee, rather than to Israel. Sources close to Hamas said the group was willing to "confine and store" heavy arms under a Palestinian body but not hand them to Israel directly, underscoring why Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 remains contested. [Spectrum News/AP, Aug 04]
Sequencing is the key unresolved issue. Israel says it will withdraw its military only after Hamas completes genuine disarmament, while Hamas maintains that disarmament depends on a full Israeli withdrawal and the start of reconstruction. Analysts at the Atlantic Council noted that the initial Gaza deal secured the release of all Israeli hostages without an explicit end to the war, leaving disarmament as the final and hardest concession. With a multi-hundred-day decommissioning schedule and each side conditioning its steps on the other, completion of full disarmament before December 31, 2026 would require an accelerated timeline that neither party has yet committed to in writing. [Atlantic Council, Jul 31]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 62c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 80c | 58% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 75c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–88c vs 78c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 78c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 63c, indicating a prior strong conviction in disarmament, but the lack of follow-up or averaging down suggests either capitulation or a strategic pause. This high entry point now acts as a psychological ceiling, as the wallet may seek to exit near break-even if price recovers. The absence of NO entries from smart money implies they are not aggressively betting against disarmament, but the YES holder's trapped position could cap upside momentum.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.4K | -46% |
All tracked YES positions are underwater, with entries at 63c against a current price of 22c, implying a 65% loss for those holders. This creates heavy resistance near 63c, as any rally toward that level would likely trigger profit-taking or break-even selling. The absence of profitable YES or NO positions suggests no one is currently in the money, leaving the market without a clear support base and vulnerable to further downside if selling pressure persists.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $1.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 20c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $1.6M |
| Our Model | 20c | — |