Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).
The question of whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 intensified after the Trump administration issued Tehran a Saturday deadline to publicly renounce attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials say Iran violated the memorandum of understanding it signed roughly three weeks ago by repeatedly firing on commercial vessels, and are demanding a public statement affirming the strait is open. One official noted that a power struggle is underway inside the Iranian regime over implementing the MOU, signaling that the next steps remain contested at the highest levels of Tehran's leadership. [Axios, Jul 10]
Tensions escalated sharply the week prior. Three vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz from Monday into Tuesday, with one tanker off the coast of Oman catching fire and another hit by a drone, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations center. From Tuesday night to Thursday, the U.S. and Iran traded direct attacks in a major escalation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that "negotiations on a final deal will not commence" if U.S. military threats continue, citing Para 13 of the MOU, while President Donald Trump declared the accord "over" and vowed to "make a deal, or finish the job." [Time, Jul 07]
Whether Iran will formally announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 hinges on whether rhetoric hardens into an official break. Despite two days of strikes, a U.S. official told Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to talks and that technical discussions for a lasting peace deal will continue. Analysts caution that Araghchi's language stops short of a formal exit, and the internal Iranian power struggle could push either toward renunciation or renewed engagement. The structural determinant remains ship-strike incidents in the Hormuz corridor. [Al Jazeera, Jul 10]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($65K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 26c YES.
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