Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Haaretz - back to home page.

What’s Happening

On May 7, 2026, settler leaders announced they are moving forward with the establishment of two new communities, Bezek and Tamun, in the West Bank, with the first families expected to relocate as early as this month. This development follows a December 2025 Cabinet decision and comes amid a broader push to strengthen Israeli presence in strategic areas overlooking the Jordan Valley before the next election. The move has been framed by settlement advocates as a necessary step to solidify control, though it has drawn sharp criticism from Palestinian officials and international observers who view it as a de facto step toward formal annexation. The question of whether Israel will formally annex West Bank territory before 2027 remains a central geopolitical uncertainty, with the current trajectory of settlement expansion suggesting a gradual, rather than declaratory, approach. [Ynetnews, Thu May 7]

The political landscape surrounding the issue is deeply fractured. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on May 4 accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of "boycotting" West Bank settlements after a new subsidy program for Carrefour supermarkets notably excluded the territory. In response, Israel’s economy minister defended Netanyahu’s policy by touting plans for "100 new settlements," signaling a hawkish stance. However, analysts caution that such rhetoric does not equate to a formal annexation decree. Meanwhile, violence continues to escalate: on May 2, Israeli settlers wounded six Palestinians across the West Bank, including a 71-year-old woman in Hebron, and an IDF reservist opened fire on Palestinian homes in the al-Aroub refugee camp while reportedly intoxicated. These incidents underscore the volatile security environment that complicates any potential move to formally annex West Bank territory. [Haaretz, Mon May 4] [Haaretz, Sat May 2]

The structural factor that will determine whether Israel annexes West Bank territory before 2027 is the interplay between domestic political dynamics and international pressure. As noted in a May 1 analysis, Israel’s current leadership appears committed to permanent control over Palestinians as non-citizen subjects within unilaterally defined expanded borders, but this falls short of formal annexation. The upcoming election campaign is fueling settlement expansion as a political tool, yet the Netanyahu government has so far avoided a unilateral declaration that would trigger widespread international condemnation, including potential sanctions or diplomatic isolation. Without a clear legislative or cabinet-level vote to formally annex West Bank territory, the probability of such a move before 2027 remains low, though the steady creep of settlement infrastructure continues to reshape the ground reality. [Haaretz, Fri May 1]

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