Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?

Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22. Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO). ▲ S&P 500 +207% | ▲ Stock Advisor +986% Join The Motley Fool.

What’s Happening

Jerome Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve Chair formally concluded on Friday, May 15, 2026, ending an eight-year run atop the central bank that began in February 2018. President Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, is the expected successor pending Senate confirmation procedures, while CNBC reported that Powell was elected Fed Chair Pro Tempore to bridge any procedural gap. The transition window of May 15 to May 22 brackets the formal chair handover, making the question of whether jerome powell depart as fed chair between may 15 and may 22 a matter of procedural calendar mechanics rather than political surprise. [CNBC, May 15]

Powell broke 75 years of Federal Reserve precedent by announcing he will remain on the Board of Governors after stepping down as chair, with his governor term not expiring until 2028. Historically, departing Fed chairs have resigned their board seats entirely upon completion of the chairmanship — a tradition unbroken since the post-war reorganization of the FOMC. The decision complicates the succession optics for the incoming administration's monetary policy agenda, particularly given Warsh's stated intent to deleverage the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, a move that risks repricing duration assets across the curve. [Motley Fool, May 10]

Markets are pricing the regime shift carefully: equity indices closed the week with the S&P 500 holding near recent highs, while the front-end rates complex showed muted reaction as Powell's parting FOMC guidance signaled a decisive policy pivot in his final week. The structural question of whether jerome powell depart as fed chair between may 15 and may 22 hinges on the formal cessation of chair duties versus continued board service — a distinction that matters for resolution sources tracking the official Federal Reserve press release dated May 15. Last time a chair transition coincided with active QT debate — the 2018 Powell-Yellen handover — 10-year yields rose 40 basis points over the following six weeks before stabilizing. [Motley Fool, May 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 55c YES.