Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 23, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $141.2K

Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?

Q: How did 'Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 23, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 23

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	15c	75%
Gemini Flash	YES	85c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	94c	84%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 72c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.9K	+1%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+1%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES94+$1,871$1,871 Realized— Unrealized+$18 Total Profit+$18 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1964) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$121 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +6.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	95c	$141.2K	100c
AI Consensus	72c	—	✓ matched

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