As of September 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?” at 18% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 18% probability to: will j.d. vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 18c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 18c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 89c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 91c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 68c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 86c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 73c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (68–91c vs 82c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 82c. 1-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 71c, signaling a strong conviction that Vance will not attend a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline. With no YES entries recorded, smart money is unambiguously positioned against the event, and the 71c NO entry implies a perceived probability of roughly 29% for YES at the time of trade. This positioning supports further NO dominance and suggests the 18c YES price may still be overvalued relative to informed sentiment.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.1K | +12% |
Every tracked position is on the NO side and all are in profit, with YES holders showing 0% profitability at an 18c price. The absence of any profitable YES entries suggests the market is pricing a low-probability event with no supportive bid from winners. This dynamic reinforces downside pressure on YES, as there is no profitable cohort to defend the 18c level.
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 17c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $51K |
| Our Model | 17c | — |